“Tönnies outbreak worse than Heinsberg”: virologist warns of Corona-relapse
The Coronavirus outbreak in the meat group Tönnies in the district of Gütersloh has assumed large proportions. More than 1500 people have been infected. Virologist Friedemann Weber says: So that it will stay with the outbreak in a local Happening, here, now need to take massive action.
More than 1500 people have been infected with Tönnies in Rheda-Wiedenbrück with the Coronavirus (as of: 23.6., 8 PM). The majority of the employees in the meat group in the circle Gütersloh (NRW) have already been tested, of 6650 people samples were taken. In the hospital 21 Covid had to be treated-19-inpatients, six of them in intensive care. Two Infected respiration (state 21.6.).
The outbreak in Gütersloh is not the only local Corona Fire. Previously, the cases in Göttingen and Berlin-Neukölln is already known. However, the case in North Rhine-Westphalia has achieved with the high number of Infected on a new Dimension. The Prime Minister has now ordered a Lockdown.
- All the developments of the outbreak in Tönnies you read in the News-Ticker of FOCUS Online.
"This is a different Größenordnung"
“The current outbreak is in order, the company Tönnies around worrying than the one in Heinsberg at the beginning of the year,” says Friedemann Weber, Director of the Institute for Virology at the University of Giessen, on the current situation in the district of Gütersloh. Because the conditions of transmission of the virus to be the conditions in a meat factory is still better than the one carnival session. “There, we have a Happening, in which the Virus is often efficiently transferred not only in one day, but in many. This is a different order of magnitude.“
Also, the work seem to be conditions in slaughterhouses well with the currently necessary hygiene measures to be compatible, such as Isabella Eckerle, a Professor at the University of Geneva and an expert on infectious diseases explains. Among other things, physical exertion could lead to a higher virus excretion and the cold, moist air favor in the equipment of Transmission of the Virus. The high number of infection cases among the employees of the company Tönnies way to “unnoticed, even longer before going ‘super-spreading Event’ in this operation,” says Eckerle.
Also, Friedemann Weber is. The virologist is estimated that there are in addition to the known cases, there is a dark figure of Infected in the area. “If you don’t is going on now is solid, there will remain not a local event,” says Weber. “You have to do everything to the limit now.”
Because of the local Hotspots a risk from. “Even a small local outbreak can become a great when you do something immediately.” Therefore, there is no way around, from Weber’s point of view, in a new Lockdown in affected areas. In addition, at the end of testing were far-reaching necessary to infection trace chains back and interrupt.
- All of the developments regarding the Coronavirus pandemic, you read in the News-Ticker of FOCUS Online.
“Most likely, the R will increase the value even further”
“The more we know and can test, the greater the Chance that we can limit such to Happen again,” explains the virologist. The infection numbers are, however, always greater, it is also more difficult to keep the Events under control or to bring.
NRW Minister Armin Laschet spoke so far from a huge risk of a Pandemic, but said also that Übersprünge on the population outside of the company Tönnies were low.
This assessment of the virologist from Gießen does not share. After all, there are always contacts to the outside, through which the Virus may be worn. Weber therefore assumes that there is not in the Region Affected, which appear in the official Figures. “If the Numbers we see now in the district of Gütersloh, are already the end of the flag pole – because I’m not so sure,” says the virologist. “Most likely, the R will increase the value even further”.
The had increased already strong. He climbed in the past few days, from just over 1 to 2.78 on Sunday – the highest value since the Lockdown.
Reproduction number must always be considered in context
The R-value or the reproduction factor indicates how many people are infects a of Infected in the middle. The reproduction number is more than 1, is an Infected person, on average, more than a other people. The Rate is less than 1, infects a of Infected in an average of less than a other people. The lower the value, the better.
The reproduction number for the pathogen of Sars-CoV-2 is the RKI, according to in General, without counter-measures, between 2.4 and 3.3. This means that an Infected person in the means of infecting more than two, or even more than three additional people – and the Virus spread so quickly.
An R-value of 2.8 around so need to worry? Not necessarily, because alone, he is considered to be of only limited informative value. In a time when few people infect new, reflects the value of local outbreaks, such as in the district of Gütersloh strong.
“The smaller the number of estimated new cases, the more local developments make themselves felt,” explains the mathematics expert at the RKI, Matthias an der Heiden. Since the R-would be levied value right in the short term, in order to be as close as possible to the action, there would be fluctuations from day-to-day.
In General, The reproductive number must always be in the context of other epidemic-are considered – for example, the absolute daily number of new infections. This number must be small enough to be able to contact people effectively track and to not overload the capacity of intensive care beds.
Events in Gütersloh is treated as a locally limitable of infection
But when such number of new infections is small enough? The Federal government and the countries had decided to contact and output constraints in regions in which there are more than 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants per week. This number is referred to as the Seven-day incidence.
The is exceeded in the district of Gütersloh, in the meantime, many times over. It is located at 263,7 infections per 100,000 inhabitants. In the neighbouring district of Warendorf, the value goes up. There he is, according to the North Rhine-Westphalian centre of health, with the Stand 22. June, 0 p.m., at 41.8.
At the mark of 50 for the Region concerned, stricter limits should be considered. The Federal government and the Länder have, however, agreed that this number plays no role, if it is a locally defined source of infection. So the outbreak in Tönnies is classified so far by the state government. Prime Minister Laschet includes a General Lockdown in addition to already made day – care centre and school is not closing in the Region. So far, however, were initiated, no further steps in this direction.
"What are we now Events, the zurückliegen" been a couple of weeks to see;
In Germany were registered, according to information from the health offices of the 16 Federal States from Monday to Tuesday 503 Corona infections. Now 190.862 people in the Federal Republic of Germany have been infected with the Virus, when active infected 7800 apply scarce – and the trend is rising.
“The Numbers will rise further in the near term,” says Friedemann Weber and the development of, among other things, to Happen, such as in Rheda-Wiedenbrück, but also on family gatherings or demonstrations, in which distance and respiratory protection rules have not been complied with. “Gütersloh is not shown in these Figures completely. What we now also Events that are in the distant past and where the infection happened only slowly becomes clear to see.“
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