This chart provides a discussion: Prove the RKI Figures that the contact ban is unnecessary?
The Lockdown was above all a insane step, against his better Knowledge? An Economist at the University of Hanover tries in this regard, currently, as a admonisher.
Stefan Homburg, Professor of Public Finance, achieved with his ideas an audience of millions, on Youtube, on television and in the press. Now they have reached even to the Bundestag.
The claim: You must not doctors be, to understand the data: According to the Figures from the Robert Koch Institute is the Lockdown is unnecessary and should therefore be terminated. “The elites” would have known a long time ago.
The facts: The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) published on 15. April, a graphic with information on the so-called reproduction number (R). It says something about how many other people with Sars-CoV-2 Infected person on average infects. R is less than 1, decreases, the number of new infections are among. As the far-reaching prohibition of Contact at 23. March came into force, the reproduction number according to the RKI under the age of 1.
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Homburg claimed that they had at the time, can know on the basis of the RKI Figures that the Lockdown bring nothing. The RKI was able, however, to determine, according to a spokeswoman for the reproduction number only, as the maximum delay between infection and the notification at the RKI was known. This was only the end of March the case. Then you have adapted the model and validated. “Basically, the model estimates a reproduction number, which represents the infection happen before 10-11 days,” said the spokeswoman.
22. March could, therefore, anyone – even the “elites” not on the basis of the RKI Figures have been known, as high back then, the reproduction number was. Was known, however, that the number of new infections up to 22. March increase massively. Both the calculation methods as well as the known numbers in the RKI document of 15. April read.
Many groups joined the action voluntarily
The so-called Lockdown from the 23. March was only the culmination of a whole series of measures. According to the agreement of the Federation and the länder were already after the age of 16. March not only Bars, cinemas, Clubs, swimming pools and museums will be closed. Also many shops have been shut down. Overnight stays in Hotels were for tourists as possible. At the time of the reproduction number in Germany is still significantly over 1.
Homburg suggested also, especially the decisions of the Federal government of 22. March would have put the economy in a sense, lame. Large corporations such as Daimler and VW, however, had already closed the week before factories. The car farmers markets collapse, they also had delivery problems because of the situation in Italy and China. Crucial also Worry about the risk of Infection for employees. Many companies in Germany have not concluded so, because the state ordered it supposed to be so, but because the production on the current scale was no longer possible or economically viable.
But what is now with the measures from the 23. March were as follows: they Were as useless as Homburg claims? The statisticians Helmut cuisine Hoff from Munich contradicts decided that the RKI image is actually worth the. “The statement that alone can be derived from the reproduction number of the ineffectiveness of the measures is just not right. This is a wrong Interpretation of the graphic.”
Tip: for More data to Cononavirus you can find here:
A warning against careless Interpretation of the data
Why, however, the reproduction number remained in Germany about the same level, since the contact lock is in force? The RKI refers to several outbreaks in nursing homes at the end of March. As soon as the Virus spread there for the first time, can also with the current contact restrictions hardly encounter. Even if the reproduction number at the same time decreases elsewhere, it remains about the same. According to the RKI, the infectious can be reduced also by the prohibition of Contact between the different house.
Viola pries the man from the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization also warns against interpreting the data easily: “It is very difficult, solely on the basis of this graph, cause and effect, to read.” Factors such as school closures, contact, restrictions and others would not be so easy to take apart. Your own calculations show a clear effect of the contact show lock from 22. March.
The R-value of a Covenant is also more average. He covers that it can give big differences. An exponential growth of the infected number, however, is always dangerous, whether on a Federal, state or County level.
Many epidemiologists find it useful to press the R-value with appropriate measures to permanently and very significantly below 1, the Covid-19-epidemic in Germany, Mr to. From jumping to conclusions of non-Expert such as Economists Homburg statisticians kitchen Hoff holds a little. “You have to be able to read Numbers correctly – and for that you have to deal a bit with epidemiology.”
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